Khaos Williams vs Matthew Semelsberger
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-5-0Record11-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'1"
77"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Murcielago MMA· 1703 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamClinch Academy
What's at stake
Khaos Williams is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Matthew Semelsberger carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1732
If they lose-21→ 1700
If they win+21→ 1630
If they lose-11→ 1598
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1692 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1649 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Khaos WilliamsMatthew Semelsberger
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Khaos Williams83%
Matthew Semelsberger 17%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Khaos Williams a 83% favorite over Matthew Semelsberger in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Khaos Williams holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1721 to 1609, a 112-point edge.
Matthew Semelsberger enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Khaos Williams finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Matthew Semelsberger 64%.
Khaos Williams carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.