Khaos Williams vs Miguel Baeza
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-5-0Record10-4-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'2"
77"Reach74"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Murcielago MMATeamMMA Masters
What's at stake
Khaos Williams is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Miguel Baeza carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1733
If they lose-19→ 1701
If they win+19→ 1670
If they lose-13→ 1638
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1691 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1617 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Khaos WilliamsMiguel Baeza
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Khaos Williams77%
Miguel Baeza 23%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Khaos Williams a 77% favorite over Miguel Baeza in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Khaos Williams holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1720 to 1651, a 69-point edge.
Miguel Baeza enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Khaos Williams finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Miguel Baeza 80%.
Khaos Williams carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.