KJ Noons vs Sam Stout
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-9-0Record20-12-1
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'9"
39.00ReachTBD
168 lbsWeight155 lbs
The ArenaTeamTeam Tompkins
What's at stake
KJ Noons is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Sam Stout carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1643
If they lose-18→ 1611
If they win+13→ 1607
If they lose-11→ 1583
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1674 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1652 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
KJ NoonsSam Stout
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
KJ Noons60%
Sam Stout 40%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes KJ Noons a 60% favorite over Sam Stout in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
KJ Noons holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1629 to 1594, a 35-point edge.
KJ Noons enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Sam Stout enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
KJ Noons finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Sam Stout 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.