Combat Edge Intelligence

Koji Oishi vs Nick Diaz

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-10-10Record26-10-0
FeatherweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'8"Height6'1"
TBDReach76"
145 lbsWeight185 lbs
PANCRASEismTeamCesar Gracie Fight Team

What's at stake

Nick Diaz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Koji Oishi carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Koji OishiNow 1616
If they win+17→ 1633
If they lose-7→ 1609
Nick DiazNow 1759
If they win+7→ 1766
If they lose-17→ 1742

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1500 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1731 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.43
Sig. strikes / min
5.71
9%
Strike accuracy
42%
17.86
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.84
43%
Strike defense
60%
0
Takedown avg.
1.28
TBD
Takedown accuracy
33%
0%
Takedown defense
60%
0
Submission avg.
1

Trajectory

Koji OishiNick Diaz
16001650170017502012201320142015201620172018201920202021

Win method breakdown

8 (32%)
KO/TKO
13 (50%)
0 (0%)
Submission
8 (31%)
17 (68%)
Decision
5 (19%)

Combat Edge model read

Nick Diaz83%
Koji Oishi 17%Elo baseline: 69%

The Combat Edge model makes Nick Diaz a 83% favorite over Koji Oishi in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).

Nick Diaz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1759 to 1616, a 143-point edge.

Nick Diaz enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Koji Oishi finishes 32% of wins inside the distance, Nick Diaz 81%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.