Combat Edge Intelligence

Korey Taylor vs Nilton Gavião

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

4-0-0Record17-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'8"
N/AReach-
160 lbsWeight151 lbs
Gracie Barra South JaxTeamSombra Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Korey TaylorNow 1545
If they win+24→ 1569
If they lose-24→ 1521
Nilton GaviãoNow 1547
If they win+16→ 1563
If they lose-16→ 1531

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1530 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1501 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Korey TaylorNilton Gavião
15501600202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (75%)
KO/TKO
6 (35%)
1 (25%)
Submission
4 (24%)
0 (0%)
Decision
7 (41%)

Combat Edge model read

Korey Taylor65%
Nilton Gavião 35%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Korey Taylor a 65% favorite over Nilton Gavião in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Nilton Gavião's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1545 vs 1547), separated by just 2 points.

Korey Taylor enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Nilton Gavião enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Korey Taylor finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Nilton Gavião 59%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.