Kris Moutinho vs Sean O'Malley
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-8-0Record20-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'11"
68"Reach72″
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Rivera Athletic CenterTeamMMA Lab
What's at stake
Sean O'Malley is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Kris Moutinho carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+25→ 1610
If they lose-7→ 1578
If they win+7→ 1822
If they lose-25→ 1790
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1536 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1750 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kris MoutinhoSean O'Malley
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sean O'Malley92%
Kris Moutinho 8%Elo baseline: 79%
The Combat Edge model makes Sean O'Malley a 92% favorite over Kris Moutinho in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (79%).
Sean O'Malley holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1815 to 1585, a 230-point edge.
Kris Moutinho enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Sean O'Malley enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Kris Moutinho finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Sean O'Malley 70%.
Sean O'Malley carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.