Kristian Rothaermel vs Rob MacDonald
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
4-3-0Record5-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'3"
TBDReachTBD
205 lbsWeight230 lbs
TBDTeamFranco Behring
What's at stake
Rob MacDonald is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Kristian Rothaermel carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+26→ 1537
If they lose-22→ 1489
If they win+22→ 1564
If they lose-26→ 1516
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1548 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1582 · 7 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kristian RothaermelRob MacDonald
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rob MacDonald60%
Kristian Rothaermel 40%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Rob MacDonald a 60% favorite over Kristian Rothaermel in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Rob MacDonald holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1542 to 1511, a 31-point edge.
Rob MacDonald enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Kristian Rothaermel finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Rob MacDonald 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.