Combat Edge Intelligence

Kuniyoshi Hironaka vs Thiago Alves

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

23-9-0Record23-15-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'10"
TBDReach70,0"
153 lbsWeight170 lbs
Master JapanTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Kuniyoshi Hironaka is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Thiago Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Kuniyoshi HironakaNow 1711
If they win+7→ 1718
If they lose-17→ 1694
Thiago AlvesNow 1572
If they win+17→ 1589
If they lose-7→ 1565

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1577 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.43
Sig. strikes / min
3.73
44%
Strike accuracy
42%
5.13
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.42
55%
Strike defense
63%
2.60
Takedown avg.
0.71
32%
Takedown accuracy
61%
25%
Takedown defense
63%
0.97
Submission avg.
0.30

Trajectory

Kuniyoshi HironakaThiago Alves
1600165017002013201420152016201720182019

Win method breakdown

7 (30%)
KO/TKO
13 (57%)
8 (35%)
Submission
1 (4%)
8 (35%)
Decision
9 (39%)

Combat Edge model read

Kuniyoshi Hironaka74%
Thiago Alves 26%Elo baseline: 69%

The Combat Edge model makes Kuniyoshi Hironaka a 74% favorite over Thiago Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).

Kuniyoshi Hironaka holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1711 to 1572, a 139-point edge.

Thiago Alves enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Kuniyoshi Hironaka finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Alves 61%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.