Combat Edge Intelligence

Kurt Holobaugh vs Luiz Firmino

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

21-10-0Record20-10-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'8"
70"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Gracie UnitedTeam

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Kurt HolobaughNow 1658
If they win+12→ 1670
If they lose-12→ 1646
Luiz FirminoNow 1659
If they win+12→ 1671
If they lose-12→ 1647

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1633 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1659 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.65
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
45%
Strike accuracy
TBD
4.30
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
50%
Strike defense
TBD
0.66
Takedown avg.
TBD
33%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
39%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.79
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Kurt HolobaughLuiz Firmino
16501700201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

7 (33%)
KO/TKO
2 (10%)
10 (48%)
Submission
7 (35%)
4 (19%)
Decision
11 (55%)

Combat Edge model read

Luiz Firmino52%
Kurt Holobaugh 48%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Luiz Firmino a 52% favorite over Kurt Holobaugh in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1658 vs 1659), separated by just 1 points.

Kurt Holobaugh enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Luiz Firmino enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Kurt Holobaugh finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Luiz Firmino 45%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.