Kurt Holobaugh vs Manuel Exposito
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-10-0Record14-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'7"
70"Reach69"
155 lbsWeight150 lbs
Gracie UnitedTeamEntram Gym· 1683 avg Elo · 11 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1670
If they lose-12→ 1646
If they win+16→ 1673
If they lose-16→ 1641
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1633 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1538 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kurt HolobaughManuel Exposito
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Manuel Exposito66%
Kurt Holobaugh 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Manuel Exposito a 66% favorite over Kurt Holobaugh in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Kurt Holobaugh's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1658 vs 1657), separated by just 1 points.
Kurt Holobaugh enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Kurt Holobaugh finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Manuel Exposito 79%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.