Kurt Holobaugh vs Matheus Camilo
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-10-0Record11-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'10"
70"Reach 69"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Gracie UnitedTeamXtreme Couture
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1669
If they lose-12→ 1645
If they win+16→ 1673
If they lose-16→ 1641
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1633 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1542 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kurt HolobaughMatheus Camilo
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matheus Camilo88%
Kurt Holobaugh 12%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Matheus Camilo a 88% favorite over Kurt Holobaugh in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Kurt Holobaugh's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1657 vs 1657), separated by just 0 points.
Kurt Holobaugh enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Matheus Camilo enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Kurt Holobaugh finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Matheus Camilo 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.