Kurt Holobaugh vs Shane Burgos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-10-0Record16-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'11"
70"Reach75"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Gracie UnitedTeamTeam Tiger Schulmann
What's at stake
Shane Burgos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Kurt Holobaugh carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1672
If they lose-9→ 1648
If they win+13→ 1746
If they lose-19→ 1714
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1633 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1703 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kurt HolobaughShane Burgos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Shane Burgos78%
Kurt Holobaugh 22%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Shane Burgos a 78% favorite over Kurt Holobaugh in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Shane Burgos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1733 to 1657, a 76-point edge.
Kurt Holobaugh enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Kurt Holobaugh finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Shane Burgos 63%.
Shane Burgos carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.