Kurt Pellegrino vs Nate Diaz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
16-7-0Record21-14-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height6'0"
TBDReach76"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Pellegrino MMATeamCesar Gracie Fight Team
What's at stake
Nate Diaz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Kurt Pellegrino carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1635
If they lose-13→ 1603
If they win+10→ 1683
If they lose-14→ 1659
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1593 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1727 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kurt PellegrinoNate Diaz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nate Diaz75%
Kurt Pellegrino 25%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Nate Diaz a 75% favorite over Kurt Pellegrino in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Nate Diaz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1673 to 1616, a 57-point edge.
Kurt Pellegrino enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Kurt Pellegrino finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Nate Diaz 81%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.