Kurt Pellegrino vs Thiago Tavares
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-7-0Record24-11-1
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'7"
TBDReach68,0"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Pellegrino MMATeamTeam Tavares
What's at stake
Thiago Tavares is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Kurt Pellegrino carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1636
If they lose-15→ 1604
If they win+11→ 1658
If they lose-13→ 1634
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1601 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1588 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kurt PellegrinoThiago Tavares
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Thiago Tavares61%
Kurt Pellegrino 39%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Thiago Tavares a 61% favorite over Kurt Pellegrino in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Thiago Tavares holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1647 to 1619, a 28-point edge.
Kurt Pellegrino enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Kurt Pellegrino finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Tavares 79%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.