Kyle Daukaus vs Phil Hawes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-5-0Record12-6-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'3"Height5'11"
76"Reach77"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Martinez BJJTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Kyle Daukaus is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Phil Hawes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+12→ 1728
If they lose-20→ 1696
If they win+20→ 1643
If they lose-12→ 1611
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1613 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kyle DaukausPhil Hawes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kyle Daukaus87%
Phil Hawes 13%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Kyle Daukaus a 87% favorite over Phil Hawes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Kyle Daukaus holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1716 to 1623, a 93-point edge.
Phil Hawes enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Kyle Daukaus finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Phil Hawes 83%.
Kyle Daukaus and Phil Hawes share 1 common opponent: Roman Dolidze.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.