Kyle Kingsbury vs Patrick Cummins
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-6-0Record10-7-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
TBDReachTBD
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
American Kickboxing AcademyTeamReign MMA
What's at stake
Patrick Cummins is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Kyle Kingsbury carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1604
If they lose-15→ 1572
If they win+15→ 1617
If they lose-17→ 1585
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1611 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1667 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kyle KingsburyPatrick Cummins
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Patrick Cummins51%
Kyle Kingsbury 49%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Patrick Cummins a 51% favorite over Kyle Kingsbury in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Patrick Cummins holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1602 to 1587, a 15-point edge.
Kyle Kingsbury enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Patrick Cummins enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Kyle Kingsbury finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Patrick Cummins 60%.
Kyle Kingsbury and Patrick Cummins share 1 common opponent: Glover Teixeira.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.