Kyle Kingsbury vs Stephan Bonnar
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-6-0Record15-9-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
TBDReach79"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
American Kickboxing AcademyTeamOne Kick's Gym
What's at stake
Stephan Bonnar is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Kyle Kingsbury carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1604
If they lose-15→ 1572
If they win+15→ 1628
If they lose-17→ 1596
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1611 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1667 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kyle KingsburyStephan Bonnar
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Stephan Bonnar54%
Kyle Kingsbury 46%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Stephan Bonnar a 54% favorite over Kyle Kingsbury in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Stephan Bonnar holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1613 to 1587, a 26-point edge.
Kyle Kingsbury enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Stephan Bonnar enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Kyle Kingsbury finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Stephan Bonnar 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.