Combat Edge Intelligence

Kyle Kingsbury vs Tuco Tokkos

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tuco Tokkos

Tuco Tokkos

“Tuco”

11-6-0Light HeavyweightUFC

1592Solid

Tale of the tape

11-6-0Record11-6-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'4"
TBDReach76"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
American Kickboxing AcademyTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Kyle KingsburyNow 1587
If they win+16→ 1603
If they lose-16→ 1571
Tuco TokkosNow 1592
If they win+16→ 1608
If they lose-16→ 1576

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1611 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1568 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.97
Sig. strikes / min
2.12
41%
Strike accuracy
40%
3.81
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.27
51%
Strike defense
47%
2.64
Takedown avg.
4.21
42%
Takedown accuracy
47%
52%
Takedown defense
33%
0
Submission avg.
0.47

Trajectory

Kyle KingsburyTuco Tokkos
16001650201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (36%)
KO/TKO
6 (55%)
2 (18%)
Submission
3 (27%)
5 (45%)
Decision
2 (18%)

Combat Edge model read

Tuco Tokkos66%
Kyle Kingsbury 34%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Tuco Tokkos a 66% favorite over Kyle Kingsbury in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1587 vs 1592), separated by just 5 points.

Kyle Kingsbury enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Kyle Kingsbury finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Tuco Tokkos 82%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.