Kyle Prepolec vs Mateusz Rębecki
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-10-0Record20-5-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'7"
70"Reach66"
160 lbsWeight155 lbs
Maximum Training CentreTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Mateusz Rębecki is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Kyle Prepolec carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1600
If they lose-9→ 1568
If they win+7→ 1734
If they lose-17→ 1710
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1598 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1682 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kyle PrepolecMateusz Rębecki
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mateusz Rębecki87%
Kyle Prepolec 13%Elo baseline: 70%
The Combat Edge model makes Mateusz Rębecki a 87% favorite over Kyle Prepolec in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).
Mateusz Rębecki holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1727 to 1577, a 150-point edge.
Kyle Prepolec enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Mateusz Rębecki enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Kyle Prepolec finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Mateusz Rębecki 80%.
Kyle Prepolec carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.