Kyle Prepolec vs Mateusz Rębecki
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Mateusz Rębecki84%
Kyle Prepolec 16%Elo baseline: 71%
The Combat Edge model makes Mateusz Rębecki a 84% favorite over Kyle Prepolec in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).
Mateusz Rębecki holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1745 to 1586, a 159-point edge.
Kyle Prepolec enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Kyle Prepolec finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Mateusz Rębecki 81%.
Kyle Prepolec carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
18-11-0Record21-5-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'7"
70"Reach66"
160 lbsWeight155 lbs
Maximum Training Centre· 1657 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Mateusz Rębecki is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Kyle Prepolec carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1603
If they lose-7→ 1579
If they win+7→ 1752
If they lose-17→ 1728
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1600 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1693 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kyle PrepolecMateusz Rębecki