Combat Edge Intelligence

Kyohei Hagiwara vs Marcello Aguiar

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-12-0Record10-16-1
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'9"
71.1"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team SmokerTeamBarbaros Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Kyohei HagiwaraNow 1479
If they win+16→ 1495
If they lose-16→ 1463
Marcello AguiarNow 1484
If they win+24→ 1508
If they lose-24→ 1460

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1548 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1681 · 1 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Kyohei HagiwaraMarcello Aguiar
150020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (78%)
KO/TKO
3 (30%)
0 (0%)
Submission
6 (60%)
2 (22%)
Decision
1 (10%)

Combat Edge model read

Kyohei Hagiwara53%
Marcello Aguiar 47%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Kyohei Hagiwara a 53% favorite over Marcello Aguiar in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Marcello Aguiar's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1479 vs 1484), separated by just 5 points.

Kyohei Hagiwara enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Kyohei Hagiwara finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Marcello Aguiar 90%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.