Kyohei Hagiwara vs Wagner Campos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-12-0Record12-10-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'6"
71.1"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team SmokerTeamFight Only
What's at stake
Kyohei Hagiwara is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Wagner Campos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1493
If they lose-18→ 1461
If they win+18→ 1460
If they lose-14→ 1428
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1548 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1517 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kyohei HagiwaraWagner Campos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kyohei Hagiwara78%
Wagner Campos 22%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Kyohei Hagiwara a 78% favorite over Wagner Campos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Kyohei Hagiwara holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1479 to 1442, a 37-point edge.
Kyohei Hagiwara enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Wagner Campos enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Kyohei Hagiwara finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Wagner Campos 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.