Kēstin McClain vs Mizuto Hirota
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
5-0-0Record18-11-2
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'7"
-Reach67,5"
147 lbsWeight155 lbs
Roughhouse BoxingTeamCave
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1646
If they lose-24→ 1598
If they win+12→ 1634
If they lose-12→ 1610
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1510 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1599 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kēstin McClainMizuto Hirota
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kēstin McClain56%
Mizuto Hirota 44%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Kēstin McClain a 56% favorite over Mizuto Hirota in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1622 vs 1622), separated by just 0 points.
Kēstin McClain enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Mizuto Hirota enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Kēstin McClain finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Mizuto Hirota 56%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.