Kēstin McClain vs Nobuhiro Obiya
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-0-0Record12-5-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'7"
-ReachTBD
147 lbsWeight154 lbs
Roughhouse BoxingTeamKiguchi Dojo
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1646
If they lose-24→ 1598
If they win+16→ 1638
If they lose-16→ 1606
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1510 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1562 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kēstin McClainNobuhiro Obiya
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kēstin McClain54%
Nobuhiro Obiya 46%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Kēstin McClain a 54% favorite over Nobuhiro Obiya in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1622 vs 1622), separated by just 0 points.
Kēstin McClain enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Nobuhiro Obiya enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Kēstin McClain finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Nobuhiro Obiya 58%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.