Lance Benoist vs Seth Baczynski
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-2-0Record21-16-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'3"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
What's at stake
Lance Benoist is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Seth Baczynski carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1635
If they lose-19→ 1603
If they win+14→ 1568
If they lose-10→ 1544
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1543 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1555 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Lance BenoistSeth Baczynski
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lance Benoist61%
Seth Baczynski 39%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Lance Benoist a 61% favorite over Seth Baczynski in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Lance Benoist holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1622 to 1554, a 68-point edge.
Seth Baczynski enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Lance Benoist finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Seth Baczynski 90%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.