Combat Edge Intelligence

Lance Benoist vs Zach Scroggin

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-2-0Record7-1-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'3"
TBDReach74"
170 lbsWeight183 lbs
St. Charles MMATeamMarathon MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Lance BenoistNow 1622
If they win+16→ 1638
If they lose-16→ 1606
Zach ScrogginNow 1623
If they win+24→ 1647
If they lose-24→ 1599

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1543 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1517 · 8 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.68
Sig. strikes / min
2.40
51%
Strike accuracy
38%
2.70
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
8.80
57%
Strike defense
69%
1.50
Takedown avg.
0
33%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
62%
Takedown defense
0%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Lance BenoistZach Scroggin
15001550160016502012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

1 (14%)
KO/TKO
3 (43%)
4 (57%)
Submission
2 (29%)
2 (29%)
Decision
2 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Lance Benoist and Zach Scroggin within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1622 vs 1623), separated by just 1 points.

Lance Benoist finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Zach Scroggin 71%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.