Combat Edge Intelligence

Lance Gibson Jr. vs Spencer Fisher

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-2-0Record24-9-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'7"
72"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight155 lbs
Gibson Kickboxing & PankrationTeamTBD

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Lance Gibson Jr.Now 1652
If they win+16→ 1668
If they lose-16→ 1636
Spencer FisherNow 1654
If they win+12→ 1666
If they lose-12→ 1642

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1519 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1627 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2
Sig. strikes / min
3.17
42%
Strike accuracy
44%
4.33
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.03
54%
Strike defense
64%
2
Takedown avg.
0.67
67%
Takedown accuracy
30%
50%
Takedown defense
60%
0
Submission avg.
0.75

Trajectory

Lance Gibson Jr.Spencer Fisher
1650170020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (50%)
KO/TKO
10 (42%)
3 (30%)
Submission
9 (38%)
2 (20%)
Decision
5 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Lance Gibson Jr.70%
Spencer Fisher 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Lance Gibson Jr. a 70% favorite over Spencer Fisher in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Spencer Fisher's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1652 vs 1654), separated by just 2 points.

Spencer Fisher enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Lance Gibson Jr. finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Spencer Fisher 79%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.