Combat Edge Intelligence

Lance Gibson Jr. vs TJ Grant

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-2-0Record21-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
72"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight155 lbs
Gibson Kickboxing & PankrationTeamFit Plus

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Lance Gibson Jr.Now 1652
If they win+16→ 1668
If they lose-16→ 1636
TJ GrantNow 1653
If they win+16→ 1669
If they lose-16→ 1637

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1519 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1648 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2
Sig. strikes / min
3.95
42%
Strike accuracy
54%
4.33
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.21
54%
Strike defense
57%
2
Takedown avg.
1.63
67%
Takedown accuracy
44%
50%
Takedown defense
37%
0
Submission avg.
0.58

Trajectory

Lance Gibson Jr.TJ Grant
1550160016502011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (50%)
KO/TKO
4 (19%)
3 (30%)
Submission
13 (62%)
2 (20%)
Decision
4 (19%)

Combat Edge model read

Lance Gibson Jr.63%
TJ Grant 37%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Lance Gibson Jr. a 63% favorite over TJ Grant in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans TJ Grant's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1652 vs 1653), separated by just 1 points.

TJ Grant enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Lance Gibson Jr. finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, TJ Grant 81%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.