Combat Edge Intelligence

Lance Lawrence vs Theo Rlayang

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-4-0Record5-1-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
6'0"Height5'6"
TBDReach37,0"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
TeamGreensboro Judo

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Lance LawrenceNow 1559
If they win+16→ 1575
If they lose-16→ 1543
Theo RlayangNow 1555
If they win+24→ 1579
If they lose-24→ 1531

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1542 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1508 · 7 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.87
Sig. strikes / min
5.93
50%
Strike accuracy
48%
9.80
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
8.40
25%
Strike defense
41%
1
Takedown avg.
2
100%
Takedown accuracy
40%
50%
Takedown defense
0%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Lance LawrenceTheo Rlayang
155016002022202320242025

Win method breakdown

1 (13%)
KO/TKO
3 (60%)
5 (63%)
Submission
1 (20%)
2 (25%)
Decision
1 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Theo Rlayang57%
Lance Lawrence 43%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Theo Rlayang a 57% favorite over Lance Lawrence in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Lance Lawrence's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1559 vs 1555), separated by just 4 points.

Theo Rlayang enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Lance Lawrence finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Theo Rlayang 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.