Combat Edge Intelligence

Lance Lawrence vs Wily Pereira

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-4-0Record12-6-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
6'0"Height5'8"
TBDReach-
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
TBDTeamCombat Time

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Lance LawrenceNow 1559
If they win+16→ 1575
If they lose-16→ 1543
Wily PereiraNow 1561
If they win+16→ 1577
If they lose-16→ 1545

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1541 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1514 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.87
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
50%
Strike accuracy
TBD
9.80
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
25%
Strike defense
TBD
1
Takedown avg.
TBD
100%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
50%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Lance LawrenceWily Pereira
15502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (13%)
KO/TKO
2 (17%)
5 (63%)
Submission
7 (58%)
2 (25%)
Decision
3 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Wily Pereira62%
Lance Lawrence 38%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Wily Pereira a 62% favorite over Lance Lawrence in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1559 vs 1561), separated by just 2 points.

Lance Lawrence finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Wily Pereira 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.