Lance Palmer vs MarQuel Mederos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-8-0Record12-1-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'6"Height5'10"
69"Reach69"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team Alpha Male· 1645 avg Elo · 20 ratedTeamFactory X
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1727
If they lose-12→ 1703
If they win+16→ 1731
If they lose-16→ 1699
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1596 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Lance PalmerMarQuel Mederos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
MarQuel Mederos57%
Lance Palmer 43%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes MarQuel Mederos a 57% favorite over Lance Palmer in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Lance Palmer's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1715 vs 1715), separated by just 0 points.
Lance Palmer enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Lance Palmer finishes 39% of wins inside the distance, MarQuel Mederos 58%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.