Combat Edge Intelligence

Lance Palmer vs Mochamed Machaev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-8-0Record17-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'6"Height5'7"
69"Reach-
155 lbsWeight148 lbs
Team Alpha Male· 1645 avg Elo · 20 ratedTeamGym 23· 1622 avg Elo · 4 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Lance PalmerNow 1715
If they win+12→ 1727
If they lose-12→ 1703
Mochamed MachaevNow 1716
If they win+16→ 1732
If they lose-16→ 1700

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1564 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
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Strike accuracy
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
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Strike defense
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Takedown avg.
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Takedown accuracy
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Takedown defense
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Submission avg.
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Trajectory

Lance PalmerMochamed Machaev
16501700175020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (4%)
KO/TKO
10 (56%)
8 (35%)
Submission
2 (11%)
14 (61%)
Decision
6 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Lance Palmer55%
Mochamed Machaev 45%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Lance Palmer a 55% favorite over Mochamed Machaev in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mochamed Machaev's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1715 vs 1716), separated by just 1 points.

Lance Palmer enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Mochamed Machaev enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Lance Palmer finishes 39% of wins inside the distance, Mochamed Machaev 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.