Combat Edge Intelligence

Larissa Pacheco vs Rin Nakai

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-4-0Record27-2-1
FeatherweightDivisionFlyweight
5'8"Height5'1"
69.00"Reach36,0"
145 lbsWeight125 lbs
Joao Bastos TeamTeamShooto Dojo Shikoku

What's at stake

Rin Nakai is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Larissa Pacheco carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Larissa PachecoNow 1712
If they win+14→ 1726
If they lose-10→ 1702
Rin NakaiNow 1765
If they win+10→ 1775
If they lose-14→ 1751

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1575 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1507 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.21
Sig. strikes / min
1.57
19%
Strike accuracy
34%
4.14
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.90
56%
Strike defense
61%
0
Takedown avg.
3
0%
Takedown accuracy
19%
0%
Takedown defense
75%
0
Submission avg.
0.50

Trajectory

Larissa PachecoRin Nakai
16501700175020232024

Win method breakdown

11 (48%)
KO/TKO
9 (33%)
8 (35%)
Submission
12 (44%)
4 (17%)
Decision
6 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Larissa Pacheco and Rin Nakai within a point of even.

Rin Nakai holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1765 to 1712, a 53-point edge.

Rin Nakai enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Larissa Pacheco finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Rin Nakai 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.