Combat Edge Intelligence

Lauren Mueller vs Poliana Botelho

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

5-4-0Record9-5-0
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'5"
38,0"Reach67"
136 lbsWeight125 lbs
Alliance MMA· 1633 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

Poliana Botelho is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Lauren Mueller carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Lauren MuellerNow 1521
If they win+28→ 1549
If they lose-20→ 1501
Poliana BotelhoNow 1575
If they win+14→ 1589
If they lose-18→ 1557

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1551 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1584 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.08
Sig. strikes / min
2.90
42%
Strike accuracy
59%
3.77
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.80
59%
Strike defense
54%
0.70
Takedown avg.
0.85
50%
Takedown accuracy
57%
71%
Takedown defense
77%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Lauren MuellerPoliana Botelho
155016002019202020212022

Win method breakdown

1 (20%)
KO/TKO
6 (67%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
4 (80%)
Decision
3 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Poliana Botelho56%
Lauren Mueller 44%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Poliana Botelho a 56% favorite over Lauren Mueller in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Poliana Botelho holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1575 to 1521, a 54-point edge.

Lauren Mueller enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Lauren Mueller finishes 20% of wins inside the distance, Poliana Botelho 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.