Lauren Murphy vs Liliya Shakirova
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-7-0Record8-2-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height5'4"
67"ReachTBD
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Gracie Barra KatyTeamOld School MMA
What's at stake
Lauren Murphy is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Liliya Shakirova carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1666
If they lose-18→ 1634
If they win+18→ 1631
If they lose-14→ 1599
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1686 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1525 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Lauren MurphyLiliya Shakirova
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Liliya Shakirova60%
Lauren Murphy 40%Elo baseline: 44%
The Combat Edge model makes Liliya Shakirova a 60% favorite over Lauren Murphy in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Lauren Murphy's way (44%).
Lauren Murphy holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1652 to 1613, a 39-point edge.
Lauren Murphy enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Lauren Murphy finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Liliya Shakirova 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.