Lauren Murphy vs Mara Romero Borella
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-7-0Record12-9-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height5'6"
67"Reach38,0"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Gracie Barra KatyTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Lauren Murphy is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Mara Romero Borella carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1663
If they lose-21→ 1631
If they win+21→ 1552
If they lose-11→ 1520
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1686 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1595 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Lauren MurphyMara Romero Borella
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lauren Murphy64%
Mara Romero Borella 36%Elo baseline: 67%
The Combat Edge model makes Lauren Murphy a 64% favorite over Mara Romero Borella in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).
Lauren Murphy holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1652 to 1531, a 121-point edge.
Lauren Murphy enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Mara Romero Borella enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Lauren Murphy finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Mara Romero Borella 58%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.