Lauren Murphy vs Sara McMann
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-7-0Record14-7-0
FlyweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'5"
67"Reach66"
125 lbsWeight145 lbs
Gracie Barra KatyTeamTeam Alpha Male· 1645 avg Elo · 20 rated
What's at stake
Lauren Murphy is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Sara McMann carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1666
If they lose-18→ 1634
If they win+18→ 1632
If they lose-14→ 1600
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1687 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1609 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Lauren MurphySara McMann
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lauren Murphy66%
Sara McMann 34%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Lauren Murphy a 66% favorite over Sara McMann in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Lauren Murphy holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1652 to 1614, a 38-point edge.
Lauren Murphy enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Lauren Murphy finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Sara McMann 43%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.