Lauren Murphy vs Valentina Shevchenko
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-7-0Record26-4-1
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height5'5"
67"Reach66"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Gracie Barra KatyTeamTiger Muay Thai
What's at stake
Valentina Shevchenko is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Lauren Murphy carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+24→ 1676
If they lose-8→ 1644
If they win+6→ 1840
If they lose-18→ 1816
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1686 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1714 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Lauren MurphyValentina Shevchenko
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Valentina Shevchenko87%
Lauren Murphy 13%Elo baseline: 74%
The Combat Edge model makes Valentina Shevchenko a 87% favorite over Lauren Murphy in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (74%).
Valentina Shevchenko holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1834 to 1652, a 182-point edge.
Lauren Murphy enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Valentina Shevchenko enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Lauren Murphy finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Valentina Shevchenko 58%.
Lauren Murphy and Valentina Shevchenko share 1 common opponent: Jéssica Andrade.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.