Combat Edge Intelligence

Laurynas Urbonavicius vs Thiago Santos

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

15-2-0Record22-13-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'2"
77"Reach 76"
205 lbsWeight241 lbs
Vale Tudo MMA AcademyTeamTeam Marreta

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Laurynas UrbonaviciusNow 1677
If they win+16→ 1693
If they lose-16→ 1661
Thiago SantosNow 1674
If they win+12→ 1686
If they lose-12→ 1662

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1524 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1726 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.72
TBD
Strike accuracy
48%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.57
TBD
Strike defense
54%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.88
TBD
Takedown accuracy
33%
TBD
Takedown defense
66%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.06

Trajectory

Laurynas UrbonaviciusThiago Santos
16501700202320242025

Win method breakdown

9 (60%)
KO/TKO
15 (68%)
2 (13%)
Submission
1 (5%)
4 (27%)
Decision
6 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Laurynas Urbonavicius66%
Thiago Santos 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Laurynas Urbonavicius a 66% favorite over Thiago Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1677 vs 1674), separated by just 3 points.

Thiago Santos enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Laurynas Urbonavicius finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Santos 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.