Combat Edge Intelligence

Lazaro Dayron vs Rinya Nakamura

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-0-1Record10-1-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'7"
67"Reach68"
136 lbsWeight136 lbs
The Goat Shed Academy· 1666 avg Elo · 8 ratedTeamFreelance· 1618 avg Elo · 4 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Lazaro DayronNow 1714
If they win+16→ 1730
If they lose-16→ 1698
Rinya NakamuraNow 1711
If they win+16→ 1727
If they lose-16→ 1695

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1569 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1597 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.27
TBD
Strike accuracy
52%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.72
TBD
Strike defense
64%
TBD
Takedown avg.
2.58
TBD
Takedown accuracy
0%
TBD
Takedown defense
100%
TBD
Submission avg.
1.43

Trajectory

Lazaro DayronRinya Nakamura
165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (36%)
KO/TKO
6 (60%)
1 (9%)
Submission
1 (10%)
6 (55%)
Decision
3 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Rinya Nakamura57%
Lazaro Dayron 43%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Rinya Nakamura a 57% favorite over Lazaro Dayron in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Lazaro Dayron's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1714 vs 1711), separated by just 3 points.

Lazaro Dayron enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Lazaro Dayron finishes 45% of wins inside the distance, Rinya Nakamura 70%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.