Leon Edwards vs Nate Diaz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
22-6-0Record21-14-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
74" Reach76"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team RenegadeTeamCesar Gracie Fight Team
What's at stake
Leon Edwards is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Nate Diaz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1804
If they lose-16→ 1780
If they win+16→ 1690
If they lose-8→ 1666
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1780 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1728 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Leon EdwardsNate Diaz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Leon Edwards71%
Nate Diaz 29%Elo baseline: 67%
The Combat Edge model makes Leon Edwards a 71% favorite over Nate Diaz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).
Leon Edwards holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1796 to 1674, a 122-point edge.
Leon Edwards enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Leon Edwards finishes 45% of wins inside the distance, Nate Diaz 81%.
Leon Edwards and Nate Diaz share 1 common opponent: Rafael dos Anjos.
Nate Diaz carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.