Combat Edge Intelligence

Leon Edwards vs Pawel Pawlak

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-6-0Record23-4-1
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'0"
74" ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Team RenegadeTeamOctopus Lodz

What's at stake

Leon Edwards is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Pawel Pawlak carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Leon EdwardsNow 1796
If they win+10→ 1806
If they lose-14→ 1782
Pawel PawlakNow 1732
If they win+14→ 1746
If they lose-10→ 1722

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1780 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1548 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.62
Sig. strikes / min
1.67
54%
Strike accuracy
34%
2.42
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.22
53%
Strike defense
54%
1.18
Takedown avg.
1
36%
Takedown accuracy
38%
64%
Takedown defense
70%
0.36
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Leon EdwardsPawel Pawlak
17001750180018502022202320242025

Win method breakdown

7 (32%)
KO/TKO
11 (48%)
3 (14%)
Submission
3 (13%)
12 (55%)
Decision
9 (39%)

Combat Edge model read

Leon Edwards72%
Pawel Pawlak 28%Elo baseline: 59%

The Combat Edge model makes Leon Edwards a 72% favorite over Pawel Pawlak in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).

Leon Edwards holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1796 to 1732, a 64-point edge.

Leon Edwards enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Pawel Pawlak enters on a 8-fight win streak.

Leon Edwards finishes 45% of wins inside the distance, Pawel Pawlak 61%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.