Leon Edwards vs Rafael dos Anjos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-6-0Record32-17-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'8"
74" Reach70"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team RenegadeTeamRDA Academy
What's at stake
Leon Edwards is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Rafael dos Anjos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1805
If they lose-15→ 1781
If they win+15→ 1728
If they lose-9→ 1704
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1780 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1737 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Leon EdwardsRafael dos Anjos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Leon Edwards84%
Rafael dos Anjos 16%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Leon Edwards a 84% favorite over Rafael dos Anjos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Leon Edwards holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1796 to 1713, a 83-point edge.
Leon Edwards enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Rafael dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Leon Edwards finishes 45% of wins inside the distance, Rafael dos Anjos 50%.
Leon Edwards carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.