Combat Edge Intelligence

Leonard Garcia vs Roger Huerta

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Roger Huerta
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Roger Huerta

“El Matador”

24-13-1LightweightBFC

1579Solid

Tale of the tape

18-13-1Record24-13-1
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
TBDReachTBD
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamAllstars Training Center

What's at stake

Leonard Garcia is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Roger Huerta carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Leonard GarciaNow 1619
If they win+11→ 1630
If they lose-13→ 1606
Roger HuertaNow 1579
If they win+13→ 1592
If they lose-11→ 1568

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1597 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1569 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.77
Sig. strikes / min
3.64
25%
Strike accuracy
37%
4.79
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.33
53%
Strike defense
57%
0.30
Takedown avg.
2.13
27%
Takedown accuracy
46%
42%
Takedown defense
53%
0.53
Submission avg.
0.49

Trajectory

Leonard GarciaRoger Huerta
16001650201320142015201620172018201920202021

Win method breakdown

5 (28%)
KO/TKO
12 (55%)
10 (56%)
Submission
5 (23%)
3 (17%)
Decision
5 (23%)

Combat Edge model read

Leonard Garcia60%
Roger Huerta 40%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Leonard Garcia a 60% favorite over Roger Huerta in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Leonard Garcia holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1619 to 1579, a 40-point edge.

Leonard Garcia enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Roger Huerta enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Leonard Garcia finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Roger Huerta 77%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.