Combat Edge Intelligence

Leonardo Guimaraes vs Matthew O'Rourke

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-14-1Record0-1-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height-
73"Reach-
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Tata Fight Team· 1516 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamTeam Ryano Waterford

What's at stake

Matthew O'Rourke is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +21 while a loss costs more — Leonardo Guimaraes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Leonardo GuimaraesNow 1423
If they win+18→ 1441
If they lose-14→ 1409
Matthew O'RourkeNow 1471
If they win+21→ 1492
If they lose-27→ 1444

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1526 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1503 · 1 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Leonardo GuimaraesMatthew O'Rourke
14001450202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (27%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
8 (53%)
Submission
0 (0%)
3 (20%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Matthew O'Rourke63%
Leonardo Guimaraes 37%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Matthew O'Rourke a 63% favorite over Leonardo Guimaraes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Matthew O'Rourke holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1471 to 1423, a 48-point edge.

Leonardo Guimaraes finishes 80% of wins inside the distance.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.