Leonardo Guimaraes vs Matthew O'Rourke
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-14-1Record0-1-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height-
73"Reach-
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Tata Fight Team· 1521 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamTeam Ryano Waterford· 1566 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Matthew O'Rourke is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +21 while a loss costs more — Leonardo Guimaraes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1441
If they lose-14→ 1409
If they win+21→ 1492
If they lose-27→ 1444
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1525 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1503 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Leonardo GuimaraesMatthew O'Rourke
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matthew O'Rourke71%
Leonardo Guimaraes 29%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Matthew O'Rourke a 71% favorite over Leonardo Guimaraes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Matthew O'Rourke holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1471 to 1423, a 48-point edge.
Leonardo Guimaraes finishes 80% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.