Leonardo Guimaraes vs Minoru Toyonaga
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-14-1Record2-5-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height5'11"
73"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight195 lbs
Tata Fight Team· 1521 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamTakada Dojo
What's at stake
Minoru Toyonaga is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Leonardo Guimaraes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1440
If they lose-15→ 1408
If they win+23→ 1465
If they lose-25→ 1417
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1525 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1489 · 7 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Leonardo GuimaraesMinoru Toyonaga
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Leonardo Guimaraes56%
Minoru Toyonaga 44%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Leonardo Guimaraes a 56% favorite over Minoru Toyonaga in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Minoru Toyonaga's way (47%).
Minoru Toyonaga holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1442 to 1423, a 19-point edge.
Minoru Toyonaga enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Leonardo Guimaraes finishes 80% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.