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Combat Edge Intelligence

Leonardo Guimaraes vs Moti Horenstein

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-14-1Record1-6-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'1"
73"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Tata Fight Team· 1517 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamMoti Horenstein MMA

What's at stake

Leonardo Guimaraes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Moti Horenstein carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Leonardo GuimaraesNow 1422
If they win+15→ 1437
If they lose-17→ 1405
Moti HorensteinNow 1400
If they win+26→ 1426
If they lose-22→ 1378

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1525 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1594 · 6 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
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Strike accuracy
Not available
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
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Strike defense
Not available
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Takedown avg.
Not available
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Takedown accuracy
Not available
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Takedown defense
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Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

Leonardo GuimaraesMoti Horenstein
140014501998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

4 (27%)
KO/TKO
1 (100%)
8 (53%)
Submission
0 (0%)
3 (20%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Moti Horenstein58%
Leonardo Guimaraes 42%Elo baseline: 47%

The Combat Edge model makes Moti Horenstein a 58% favorite over Leonardo Guimaraes in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Leonardo Guimaraes's way (47%).

Leonardo Guimaraes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1422 to 1400, a 22-point edge.

Moti Horenstein enters on a 6-fight loss streak.

Leonardo Guimaraes finishes 80% of wins inside the distance.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.