Leonardo Guimaraes vs Sam Fournier
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-14-1Record2-3-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'5"
73"Reach-
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Tata Fight Team· 1521 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeam
What's at stake
Sam Fournier is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +21 while a loss costs more — Leonardo Guimaraes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1441
If they lose-14→ 1409
If they win+21→ 1481
If they lose-27→ 1433
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1525 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1497 · 5 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Leonardo GuimaraesSam Fournier
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sam Fournier54%
Leonardo Guimaraes 46%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Sam Fournier a 54% favorite over Leonardo Guimaraes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Sam Fournier holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1460 to 1423, a 37-point edge.
Sam Fournier enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Leonardo Guimaraes finishes 80% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.