Combat Edge Intelligence

Leonardo Mafra vs Rick Story

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Rick Story
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Rick Story

“The Horror”

21-10-0WelterweightPFL

1744Good

Tale of the tape

15-7-0Record21-10-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'10"
TBDReach40,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Kings MMATeamMMA Lab

What's at stake

Rick Story is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +4 while a loss costs more — Leonardo Mafra carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Leonardo MafraNow 1473
If they win+40→ 1513
If they lose-8→ 1465
Rick StoryNow 1744
If they win+4→ 1748
If they lose-20→ 1724

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1613 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1641 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.55
Sig. strikes / min
3.80
48%
Strike accuracy
42%
4.38
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.17
44%
Strike defense
63%
2.12
Takedown avg.
2.53
83%
Takedown accuracy
48%
69%
Takedown defense
63%
0.42
Submission avg.
0.89

Trajectory

Leonardo MafraRick Story
1500160017002015201620172018

Win method breakdown

9 (60%)
KO/TKO
4 (19%)
1 (7%)
Submission
5 (24%)
5 (33%)
Decision
12 (57%)

Combat Edge model read

Rick Story78%
Leonardo Mafra 22%Elo baseline: 83%

The Combat Edge model makes Rick Story a 78% favorite over Leonardo Mafra in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (83%).

Rick Story holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1473, a 271-point edge.

Leonardo Mafra finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Rick Story 43%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.