Leonardo Mafra vs Stevie Ray
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-7-0Record26-13-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'10"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Kings MMATeamHigher Level MMA
What's at stake
Stevie Ray is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Leonardo Mafra carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+35→ 1508
If they lose-13→ 1460
If they win+9→ 1653
If they lose-23→ 1621
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1613 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1675 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Leonardo MafraStevie Ray
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Stevie Ray75%
Leonardo Mafra 25%Elo baseline: 73%
The Combat Edge model makes Stevie Ray a 75% favorite over Leonardo Mafra in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).
Stevie Ray holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1644 to 1473, a 171-point edge.
Stevie Ray enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Leonardo Mafra finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Stevie Ray 62%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.